The value of the driverless car market is set to soar in the next four years as technology changes “the very concept of transport”.
The “connected transport” system of automated vehicles, state-of-theart car sharing schemes and contactless payments on public transport will be worth £90 billion worldwide by 2020, according to PwC. Britain’s share will be worth £4.5 billion, 5 per cent of the total, an analysis found.
It represents a dramatic increase from £18 billion a year at the moment and underlines the extent to which technology will dramatically transform the transport system by the end of the decade, PwC said. The move comes as Britain attempts to position itself at the forefront of the industry, with £20 million invested in trials of driverless technology in four cities this year.
Officials at the Department for Transport have also held talks with Google during the past two years to accelerate the development of autonomous vehicles.
Coolin Desai, of PwC, said that cars were already spaces where we can work, watch a movie or shop online. “The development of driverless vehicles will free us even further, he added.
“Guided by roadside and on-vehicle sensors, driverless cars will provide mobility to people who are too old or visually impaired to drive. And computer-controlled buses and cars, which are able to drive, say, six inches rather than six yards apart will vastly increase the efficiency of road networks.”
PwC analysed the value of key transport technology over the next five years. It focused on four areas: connected and autonomous cars, contactless payment for travel, car sharing, and bicycle-hire programmes such as the Boris Bike scheme in London.
It found that the market for in-car technology, including driverless vehicles, would grow by 30 per cent a year until 2020, peaking at £76 billion worldwide by the end of the decade. Forecasts suggest that 31 per cent of new cars globally will have black box-style safety features within the next two years while 18 per cent will be able to link to motorists’ smartphones.
The study found that the market for contactless travel, when commuters use smartphones and bank cards to instantly pay for train and bus fares, will also grow at 60 per cent a year to reach £6.7 billion by 2020. London is one of the world’s leaders in the field, with contactless payments in regular use on the Tube.
The study found that car and bike sharing schemes would grow by 31 per cent annually to reach £3.6 billion each by the end of the decade.
Mr Desai said: “We’re already seeing many tech-enabled new entrants disrupting the transport industry, so there is huge potential for growth in the sector and it raises questions to who will be best placed to take advantage of the opportunities connected transport brings.”
Driverless cars could be tested on motorways for the first time as part of a government trial to be announced today.
More than 40 miles of dual carriageways and motorways will be fitted with sensors to track autonomous vehicles and ensure that they interact safely with other cars.
The move is part of a £20 million investment to put Britain at the forefront of research into driverless and “connected” vehicles. Eight projects will receive taxpayer funding under the plan to be announced by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills.
One project by a consortium featuring Jaguar Land Rover, Siemens and Vodafone will try to create the most advanced environment for testing autonomous vehicles in the world. A government spokesman said at least 40 miles of city roads, dual carriageways and motorways would be equipped with wi-fi technology to communicate with vehicles and ensure that they can work autonomously in real driving conditions.
The £5.6 million project, backed by the government agency Highways England is to last two and a half years. Google has already tested driverless vehicles on public roads in America.
The new trial will also establish how wi-fi technology can transmit data directly to passing vehicles, including information about traffic jams and road conditions. This raises the possibility of streaming films and television shows directly into cars.
A separate £2.2 million research project will try to develop driverless shuttles to carry blind and partially sighted passengers around pedestrianised town centre areas, it emerged.
The research comes on top of three government-backed trials of driverless cars in Greenwich, Bristol and a joint project in Coventry and Milton Keynes. Trials are about to begin in Milton Keynes involving two-man pods, able to travel at speeds of up to 15mph, on a pedestrianised area between the main railway station and the shopping centre.
Patrick McLoughlin, the transport secretary, said the projects would change the way we travel, making driving simpler and reducing accidents. “This is a landmark moment and will allow Britain to lead the way in the testing of connected and autonomous vehicles,” he said.
Sajid Javid, the business secretary, said: “Cars of the future will be equipped with the technologies that will make getting from A to B safer, faster and cleaner. They will alert drivers of accidents and be able to receive information about hazards, increasing the safety of drivers, passengers and pedestrians.”
The research will be part of the government’s £100 million intelligent mobility fund, announced last year to revolutionise travel. It is estimated that the driverless and semiautonomous global car market will be worth £900 billion a year by 2025. Google is testing driverless cars in California as part of the most advanced trials of the technology.