“I like to drive cars,” says Mark Reuss, product development chief at General Motors, “so this is a little funny.”
Not funny-ha-ha, Reuss clarifies, but funny-odd. He’s sitting in the driver’s seat, with his hands on his thighs and his feet on the floor of a big Cadillac that’s driving itself around a banked oval.
Reuss is at GM’s 4,000-acre proving ground in rural Michigan, hidden from the public behind locked gates, tall trees, and security befitting a prison. The company’s been debugging its cars here since 1924. It’s a brilliant, sunny autumn afternoon—a nice day for being driven. Dozens of tests are going on, though it appears that his is the only one where no one’s holding the wheel.
Reuss is on edge. He forces a nervous laugh as the car takes itself up to 70 miles per hour. If he has any fast-twitch impulses rocketing across the synapses of his brain—Take the wheel, damn it!—he doesn’t give in.
“This is the cat’s meow,” he says.
Cadillac, which was two decades old when flappers were saying things like “the cat’s meow,” will be the first GM make to come with Super Cruise, the company’s most ambitious technological foray since automatic transmission. The system isn’t fully autonomous. Pairing adaptive cruise control with lane-centering technology, it will allow drivers, or whatever they’re called in the future, to let the car take over only on the highway. It will also, if all goes according to plan, propel GM into a multibillion-dollar race for the future of human mobility.
The question is whether GM can get to the future on time. Super Cruise won’t hit the market until 2017. Elon Musk has just begun offering autopilot on his Tesla Model S. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, and Volvo have similar hands-free driving systems in the works. Then there’s Google, which wants to skip the half-measures and do a full-on moonshot: totally autonomous cars that, regulators willing, won’t even come with a steering wheel or gas pedal. Google’s latest prototypes are already driving themselves around Silicon Valley, where they’re known as Koala cars because of their bulbous shape, and they may be available for purchase right around the time GM’s hands-free Caddy hits showrooms.
Google, especially, has Reuss’s attention. Last year he declared it “a very serious competitive threat.” At other times, he’s been snappish: “We’re in the car business today, and they’re not,” he said over the summer. But on the GM test oval, as he rides in the Super Cruising Caddy, he’s talking peace, perhaps even alliance. “I’m not sure it’s an us-vs.-them thing,” he says. Whether or not that partnership comes to pass (they already work together on some smaller stuff), Reuss, 52 and a GM lifer, says it’s imperative that he ...
Suddenly a crescent-shaped light on the steering wheel goes from green to red and the Caddy starts drifting in its lane. Reuss grabs the wheel. A test car just whooshed by on the left, and another slowed down on the right—too much traffic for Super Cruise, making it shut down.
That’s Chris Urmson, the technical director of Google’s car program, during a TED Talk in May. “The prevailing philosophy is that we’re going to take the driver-assistance systems that are in the vehicle today, and we’re going to incrementally make those better and better. And eventually we’ll get to this point where we have self-driving cars.” Urmson’s speech, viewed 1.4 million times at ted.com, is classic Silicon Valley disdain for Detroit.
That kind of talk annoys Reuss, who maintains that GM can disrupt with the best of them. He uses the term 14 times the afternoon of the test drive. How to pay for that disruption is the challenge. Google, deriving profits from its ubiquitous search engine, one of the most profitable businesses ever devised, has the luxury of taking a clean-sheet approach. It has a profit margin of about 22 percent and a $495 billion market capitalization—more than triple the size of GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler combined.
GM, whose profit margin is less than half of Google’s, can’t pour endless amounts of money into developing a driverless car. (Neither company will disclose what it’s actually spent on the technology.) But it has to finance its disruption somehow. In a sense, Reuss explains, the company has no choice but to be incremental, slowly seducing commuters and selling ever more cars—at fatter profits—as the technology improves.
The CT6, Cadillac’s flagship sedan, will be the first model with Super Cruise. The technology isn’t easy to spot. Hidden behind the car’s rearview mirror is a camera that identifies lane lines and objects ahead. Two short-range radars are embedded in the front bumper, and one long-range radar peeks out from behind the grille. The camera’s primary function is to keep the car centered in its lane; the radars work mostly to detect approaching objects and keep the car a set distance from traffic. All that data feeds into two computers locked in aluminum boxes tucked beneath the spare tire in the trunk. The computers analyze the sensor inputs in real time and tell the car when to accelerate, brake, and turn.
Super Cruise doesn’t have one of those spinning coffee-can things on the roof, like the ones you see on Google prototypes. Those are lidar sensors—light radar, a highly precise technology that uses lasers to read objects to the millimeter. Lidar is still expensive—about $50,000 for one unit—though Velodyne, a major supplier, has said it’s taking that price down to $8,000. GM hopes to include lidar in the next-generation Super Cruise. Google is developing its own version in-house. Its adorable Koala cars have lidar rigs affixed to the hood, looking like a button nose.
But the technological differences are really just the beginning of the disruption Google has planned. In Google’s world, you won’t just quit driving cars, you’ll also quit owning them. Forget about investing in an expensive and depreciating asset that sits idle 97 percent of every day. Fleets of autonomous vehicles will circulate through your town, pick you up when you summon one via smartphone—or smartwatch or brain implant or whatever—drop you off, and move on to the next fare.
In other words, Google doesn’t want to sell you a consumer product, but a mobility service, says Sebastian Thrun, a Stanford professor of artificial intelligence who ran Google’s car project for four years until 2013. “Obviously, once you get into the pure services world, that’s the end of Detroit,” he says.
Reuss lets out a staccato laugh at the prospect. “I don’t know about that,” he says. “That’s a pretty dramatic comment.” And yet he accepts the premise that car sales will dramatically diminish as personal transportation becomes more service-based. In his vision of the future, GM will play in both worlds, producing autonomous cars to be used as robo-taxis and human-controlled models for the diminishing segment of society that will still wants to drive. It’s a risky strategy of reinvention, and that’s why Reuss acknowledges GM will need partners to pull it off.
One thing is certain: If GM stays with its current car-selling model, it’ll go out of business. “Yep, we’re done,” he says of sticking to business as usual. “I like being in those kinds of situations. It’s kind of like Apollo 13.” He means the part about the resourceful astronauts fixing their broken capsule while hurtling through outer space, not the part about how they never made it to the moon.
Driverless Cars
GM has been talking about self-driving cars since its Futurama display at the 1939 New York World’s Fair. By the 1940s, its promotional films showed families playing cards around a table while their car drove itself. In the 1950s, GM developed a turbine-powered concept car known as the Pontiac Firebird, years before the muscle car of the same name, that could be switched to autopilot after getting the OK from a control tower.
In 2007, GM teamed up with Carnegie Mellon University to win the Darpa Urban Challenge, run by the U.S. Defense Department's research arm. GM’s heavily modified Chevy Tahoe successfully navigated a city course on its own to win a $2 million prize. The feat “made this very singular statement that automated driving is no longer science fiction,” says Raj Rajkumar, an engineering professor who co-directs GM’s Autonomous Driving Research Lab at Carnegie Mellon.
Then came the Great Recession. By 2009, as GM was descending into bankruptcy, a small band of its engineers and researchers agitated for producing driverless cars. A much larger group of more cautious executives found the idea reckless, says John Capp, GM’s director of safety, who oversaw development of Super Cruise. “We were grasping for life jackets,” he recalls of GM’s struggle to survive. Pre-bankruptcy, the traditionalists would have won. But with the government bailout came new management, which was finally convinced to invest in self-driving technology. What persuaded them were the billions that GM’s foreign competitors, including Mercedes-Benz and Toyota, were committing to similar research.
And of course there was that other competitor. “There was a sense in Detroit that people at Google were going to do something foolish,” says Chris Gerdes, director of Stanford’s Center for Automotive Research, who works with automakers on driverless-car research. “But there are a lot of smart folks at Google.”
If Reuss used to be dismissive about Google, he isn’t at the test track. “I love the company,” he gushes. “I love the people in it.” (This coming from a man not known for expressing much affection in the workplace: Reuss once sent an e-mail to an underling to express his displeasure after the employee used the milquetoast word “competitive” to describe GM’s models. Reuss’s subject line: “Vomit.”) GM already incorporates the Android Auto touchscreen infotainment system from Google into its dashboards. “I love working with them,” he says. “I think they feel the same way.”
He wants to take this affection to the next level. “We make cars, we know how to make cars,” he says. “They’ve got great technical capabilities. We are very interested in how those two might work together.”
Google declined to discuss whether it’s interested in teaming with GM on autonomous cars. However, co-founder Sergey Brin said in October, “We are really focused on working with partners” and added that they could include major automakers. Clearly, the courtship is in its early stages.
Super Cruise is acting up again. After a demonstration of how it can automatically slow the Caddy from 70 mph to 40 mph and remain centered in a lane, the car drifts slightly and the steering wheel light turns red. System shutdown.
The problem this time is glare from the sun, which blinded the rearview mirror camera. It’s a problem Reuss and his team have seen before.
Safety comes first, of course, but if the autopilot requires the driver to take the wheel too often, then customers won’t see any benefit and won’t pay up for it. And GM is banking on Super Cruise to further boost profits, which have risen rapidly since the company emerged from bankruptcy six years ago. Reuss says GM is intent on expanding its profit margin above 10 percent, more than double what was considered healthy in the pre-bankruptcy days.
Finding the right balance between human and machine control takes a lot of work. “It’s about, how much feedback is enough without being annoying?” Reuss says. To speed things up, GM simplified the system. It will operate only on highways, so it doesn’t have to deal with crossing traffic, stoplights, or children playing along the road. The company also ditched a plan for an automatic lane-changing feature, where the driver could switch lanes at the push of a button or the car itself could even sense it needs to move over.
Early in GM’s work on Super Cruise, its consumer research showed that regular drivers became comfortable with autonomous technology surprisingly quickly. While taking a spin in a Chevy Malibu equipped with an early version of the technology, one test subject after another zoned out and found other things to do, such as texting or eating. “One guy reached around and pulled a newspaper out of the back seat and just started reading it,” says GM’s Capp. “He just assumed the car was going to go along forever, perfectly safe.”
So GM developed countermeasures to make sure drivers keep their eyes on the road and stay ready to take the wheel. For example, Super Cruise-equipped cars will have a camera nestled among the gauges behind the steering wheel that continuously scans the driver’s eyes and face. If the driver isn’t watching the highway, the seat begins vibrating. If that doesn’t get the driver’s attention, alarms sound and the steering wheel light turns from green to blue to red. If that still doesn’t do the trick, the system will slow the car down and, if necessary, bring it to a stop.
Driverless Cars
There’s nothing alarming about how long it’s taking Super Cruise to come together. The technology is hard, even by Silicon Valley standards. “We’re being especially cautious at this early stage,” Musk said in October as he introduced Tesla’s autopilot. His system can handle lane changing but requires drivers to hold the wheel at all times. None of the Koalas Google has driving on public roads are for sale. There are still many thorny issues—some technical, some ethical. For example, if a collision is unavoidable, should a driverless car be programmed to always aim for the smallest object to protect its occupant? What if that small object is a baby carriage? GM is wrestling with the same issues as it tests its self-driving Cadillac SUVs on public roads in Michigan and near Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh.
Reuss allows that Super Cruise is a ways off from truly autonomous driving, but it’s a big step in that direction. He unzips a valise and pulls out some internal documents, which he flashes but refuses to hand over. He says they contain GM’s road map to autonomy, starting with “Driver in charge” in 2010, progressing to “Driver mostly in charge” this year, to “Car mostly in charge” in 2020, and finally “Car in charge” in 2025.
The road map, Reuss says, will lead GM into the bright, post-car-ownership future, where transportation is a service and driving is for hobbyists. GM could provide propulsion systems that power Google Koalas, fleets of Uber taxis, or even Apple cars, should that company decide to make them. It will also produce and sell its own autonomous cars, though Reuss isn’t sure whether they’ll still be branded Chevys and Caddys. There’s plenty of time to figure all that out, he says, dismissing the prediction that driverless cars will be the death of Detroit. “If it were going to switch overnight, maybe that would happen,” he says, slipping his secret documents back into his valise. “But it’s not gonna switch over overnight.”
Tech Creep
The technology which will control Autonomous Cars is already being applied to today's vehicles.
Automation in cars has been around for decades - adaptive cruise control has been standard since the 1990s and automatic parallel parking was introduced in the early 2000s. But recent advancements have been spectacular. The newest BMW 7-Series, for instance, lets a driver step out of the car and have it park itself in a garage at the push of a button. Some Mercedes models can drive automatically in slow-moving traffic, and both Audi and Volvo plan to introduce such technology in the next year.
This week regulators and legislators move toward mandating greater use of automation in vehicles. The National Transportation Safety Board issued a new report calling for collision avoidance systems to be included in new cars; and legislation proposed in the U.S. House and Senate would require such technology to be factored into car safety ratings.
Progress will reach important milestones this year and next with the introduction of technology that lets cars drive automatically on highways. The electric car maker Tesla has said it will issue an update for its Model S sedans, giving cars with the necessary sensors the ability to take control of speed and steering on highways. Cadillac plans to offer similar technology as an optional extra on some models next year.
The introduction of these systems could raise concerns about driver distraction, especially if drivers suddenly need to retake the wheel. Cadillac hasn’t yet said how a driver will hand over or retake control from the system, but Dan Flores, a GM spokesman, says: “Rest assured system failure scenarios are being comprehended in the development.”
Greater automation is being propelled by interest not only from automakers but also from technology companies. Besides Google and its driverless car, Uber has signaled its interest in self-driving technology by poaching academic researchers with expertise in the area from Carnegie Mellon University, and even Apple is now rumored to be developing automated driving technology.
It is both taking control away from the driver, and increasing monitoring of drivers.
Data on your driving habits comes from GPS and airbag sensors, and is stored on onboard computers.
This can be used to vary or refuse insurance premiums, and by the courts (English driver who killed two pedestrians was jailed for 5 years after his GPS data recorded high-speed driving in the weeks before the crash).(Basically you are being nudged into 'driving like a girl').
But the key takeway here is that the technology for driverless cars is being refined and proven in conventional cars.
Car-to-Car Communication
Hariharan Krishnan hardly looks like a street racer. With thin-rimmed glasses and a neat mustache, he reminds me of a math teacher. And yet on a sunny day last September, he was speeding, seemingly recklessly, around the parking lot at General Motors’ research center in Warren, Michigan, in a Cadillac DTS.
I was in the passenger seat as Krishnan wheeled around a corner and hit the gas. A moment later a light flashed on the dashboard, there was a beeping sound, and our seats started buzzing furiously. Krishnan slammed on the brakes, and we lurched to a stop just as another car whizzed past from the left, its approach having been obscured by a large hedge. “You can see I was completely blinded,” he said calmly.
The technology that warned of the impending collision will start appearing in cars in just a couple of years. Called car-to-car or vehicle-to-vehicle communication, it lets cars broadcast their position, speed, steering-wheel position, brake status, and other data to other vehicles within a few hundred meters. The other cars can use such information to build a detailed picture of what’s unfolding around them, revealing trouble that even the most careful and alert driver, or the best sensor system, would miss or fail to anticipate.
Already many cars have instruments that use radar or ultrasound to detect obstacles or vehicles. But the range of these sensors is limited to a few car lengths, and they cannot see past the nearest obstruction.
Car-to-car communication should also have a bigger impact than the advanced vehicle automation technologies that have been more widely heralded. Though self-driving cars could eventually improve safety, they remain imperfect and unproven, with sensors and software too easily bamboozled by poor weather, unexpected obstacles or circumstances, or complex city driving. Simply networking cars together wirelessly is likely to have a far bigger and more immediate effect on road safety.
Creating a car-to-car network is still a complex challenge. The computers aboard each car process the various readings being broadcast by other vehicles 10 times every second, each time calculating the chance of an impending collision. Transmitters use a dedicated portion of wireless spectrum as well as a new wireless standard, 802.11p, to authenticate each message.
Krishnan took me through several other car-to-car safety scenarios in the company’s parking lot. When he started slowly pulling into a parking spot occupied by another car, a simple alert sounded. When he attempted a risky overtaking maneuver, a warning light flashed and a voice announced: “Oncoming vehicle!”
More than five million crashes occur on U.S. roads alone every year, and more than 30,000 of those are fatal. The prospect of preventing many such accidents will provide significant impetus for networking technology.
Just an hour’s drive west of Warren, the town of Ann Arbor, Michigan, has done much to show how valuable car-to-car communication could be. There, between 2012 and 2014, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the University of Michigan equipped nearly 3,000 cars with experimental transmitters. After studying communication records for those vehicles, NHTSA researchers concluded that the technology could prevent more than half a million accidents and more than a thousand fatalities in the United States every year. The technology stands to revolutionize the way we drive, says John Maddox, a program director at the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute.
Shortly after the Ann Arbor trial ended, the U.S. Department of Transportation announced that it would start drafting rules that could eventually mandate the use of car-to-car communication in new cars. The technology is also being tested in Europe and Japan.
There will, of course, also be a few obstacles to navigate. GM has committed to using car-to-car communication in a 2017-model Cadillac. Those first Cadillacs will have few cars to talk to, and that will limit the value of the technology. It could still be more than a decade before vehicles that talk to each other are commonplace.
One of China’s leading carmakers is testing technology that promises to prevent accidents and ease congestion by allowing vehicles as well as traffic signals to communicate wirelessly. Although no standard for the technology has emerged in China yet, representatives at the company say it could introduce some form of car-to-car communications in 2018, ahead of many U.S. automakers.
Changan, a state owned car manufacturer based in Chongquing, in central China, is testing so-called vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technology at its U.S. R&D center in Plymouth, Michigan. The company does not sell vehicles in the U.S. and says it has no plans to enter the U.S. market. But the fact that it is testing car-to-car technology at its U.S. facility suggests that it sees a future for it in its home country.
Car-to-car technology is promoted in the U.S. and Europe as a cheap and effective way to help vehicles avoid crashes and to control traffic flow more effectively. Equipped vehicles broadcast useful information, including their location, speed, and direction of travel, and computers onboard each car use that information to identify an impending collision, and issue a warning (see “10 Breakthrough Technologies: Car-to-Car Communications”). Some companies are also developing custom communications systems to allow commercial vehicles to travel in highly efficient high-sped convoys (see “Trucks Convoy under Computer Control”).
Following a successful trial of the technology involving several thousand cars around Ann Arbor, Michigan, the U.S. Department of Transportation is widely expected to issue specifications for the technology later this year. The technology will debut in a high-end Cadillac in 2017, and it may eventually be mandated for new cars in the U.S. (see “The Internet of Cars is Approaching a Crossroads”). The picture is less clear in China, where the government is researching vehicle-to-vehicle technology but has not yet given any indication of when it might be implemented.
I got to ride around Ann Arbor in one of Changan’s cars, a small SUV called the CS35, fitted with vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure technology. The SUV was equipped with a wireless transmitter and receiver connected to an Android tablet attached to the dashboard. A warning flashed when another car equipped with the technology approached along a blind intersection. Another warning came as the car traveled around a sharp curve too quickly (thanks to signals received from a roadside beacon).
One challenge with car-to-car technology is that it will take a while for it to become ubiquitous. Although the Chinese car market is now the largest auto market in the world, per capita car ownership still far lower in China than in the U.S., Europe, or Japan. China also lags far behind the U.S., Europe, and Japan in terms of technology development.
John Helveston, a PhD student at Carnegie Mellon University who is studying the adoption of electric vehicles in China, says that foreign carmakers—which dominate the market in China—prefer to sell older technology there. And even if domestic carmakers are interested in car-to-car systems, “it wouldn’t be that interesting if only five out of every 100 cars can communicate with each other,” he says.
The 2015 Volvo
The sensor car is here and already delivering on much self driving. After purchasing a 2015 Volvo XC60 it took me and my wife a couple of weeks to figure out what all of the sensors due. Feeling bold, I exited my neighborhood east of Seattle, pulled on to Snoqualmie Parkway. I set the speed to 70 MPH and the sensor to maintain the largest distance between me and the car ahead. I didn't touch the brake or the accelerator for the ~190 drive from my home in Snoqualmie WA to Beaverton, OR to visit a customer. From Snoqualmie, WA: Snoqualmie Parkway (South)--> WA State Route 18 (West)-->WA SR 167 (South)-->WA SR 512 (West) --> Interstate 5 (South)--> I-405 (South) --> Oregon Hwy 26 (West) --> Exit Hwy 26 onto NW Murray Blvd where I applied the breaks for a stop light. (David James McCabe on LinkdIn)
Tesla Self-Drive Cars Are Here
With one over-the-air update Wednesday night, Tesla Motors has brought a new breed of self-driving car to American roads.
Tens of thousands of Tesla's all-electric sedan, the Model S, bought in the U.S. over the last year have already started downloading or installing "Autopilot" mode, one of the first great breakthroughs for making the kind of driverless magic seen mostly in Google-car demos.
With "Autopilot," the Tesla S can steer, change lanes and drive at highway speeds with little to no help from the human behind the wheel. It can parallel park, using its banks of cameras and sensors, and slow to a stop if the driver happens to drift asleep. In the next update, it may even be able to rouse itself from its parking space and pick the driver up.
It's called "Autopilot" for a reason: Like airplane pilots with takeoffs and landings, the driver will still be expected to handle much of the subtle and strange ballet that is modern driving. The human will still have to keep her hands on the wheel every few seconds, as a safety measure, and to meet state laws that demand a hand on the wheel. No naps in the driver seat.
But the features it brings — as a software update, no less! — mark an incredible turning point for driverless technology, which could dramatically reduce the 33,000 deaths on U.S. highways every year, advocates of the technology say.
"It will get more and more refined over time," Tesla chief executive Elon Musk said Wednesday at a press event. "Eventually, we want it to automatically have your car put itself to bed in your garage."
When the Model S now is, say, cruising on the highway, its cameras, sensors and radar are already gulping in data on lane markers, the speed and location of other cars, and other important information. Before the update, the car could automatically slow down when, say, it sensed the car ahead hit the brakes, and it would also vibrate the steering wheel when the car seemed to drift out of its lane.
Turning on "Autopilot" instructs the car to take an even greater level of control, steering into curves and maintaining its speed. To change lanes, the driver can hit her turn-signal bar, called a stalk, and the car will speed up a little and drift over. The driver still has to check her blind spots before hitting the signal; if the car senses interlopers, it will keep going straight.
Parking also gets an upgrade. The car will now be able to, as Tesla says, "scan for a parking space, alert you when one is available, and parallel park on command." The car's back-up camera and sensors say exactly how many inches the car is away from the curb.
The Model S will give back control to the driver if she grabs or turns the wheel. Alternatively, it will sound a series of increasingly annoying beeps if the driver doesn't seem to be paying attention to the wheel.
If the driver doesn't snap to attention? The car flashes a warning for the driver to grab hold of the steering wheel and eventually slow to a stop where it's driving, firing off the hazard lights. (Other carmakers have similar backup plans but differing ideas on how best to jolt drivers awake.)
Consider it something like a diet driverless car. It's meant for the relatively predictable expanse of highway driving, and won't work below 18 mph. It won't always be able to navigate darting pedestrians and the many other confusing obstructions on the road, which for now will remain the human's domain.
Of course, that also means, as Tesla said, any accident when the car is in or out of "Autopilot" remains the liability of the driver. That may change as the cars become smarter and more assertive, but for now, driver beware.
Unlike Google, which is aiming for a fully-autonomous vehicle, Tesla's approach is to gradually introduce features which take away the need for drivers to carry out certain functions.
Currently there are limitations to the software which would improve over time, Mr Musk said. "If there's heavy snow it's going to be harder for the system to work, so we'd advise caution. "Essentially it's like a person - how well can a person figure out what route they should take. Over time it will be better than a person. "Long term it will be way better than a person. It never gets tired, it's never had anything to drink, it's never arguing with someone in the car. It's not distracted."
Tesla Self-Drive Cars Learning
During the press conference for the release of the Autopilot, Tesla CEO Elon Musk referred to each Model S owners as an “expert trainer” – meaning that each driver will train the autonomous features of the system to feed the collective network intelligence of the fleet by simply driving the electric vehicle on Autopilot.
He said that the system should improve everyday, but that improvements might only become noticeable every week or so by adding up. Just a few weeks after the release, Model S owners are already taking to the Tesla Motors Club forum to describe how the Autopilot is improving.
A common problem with the early version of the system was that it had a tendency to try to take exits on the highway when it wasn’t supposed to, but after a few tugs on the Autopilot’s leash, trainers have corrected the issue.
Model S 85D owner mobe:
The first day when I was in the right lane, as I approached exit ramps, it would dive for the exit ramp. I quickly learned to apply torque to the wheel to hold the car on the interstate until I had passed the exit. Each day the system seems to have less tendency to follow the exit ramps as I pass. The last two days it only gave a momentary wiggle and moved over maybe six inches towards the exit ramp then it recovered and moved on down the road. This morning it gave only a very slight hesitation, so little that I did not have to correct it at all. I find it remarkable that it is improving this rapidly.
Tesla doesn’t recommend using the Autopilot on roads with aggressive curves, but of course it doesn’t stop owners from trying and apparently the system is learning to handle the sharp curves pretty fast:
Model S P85D owner commasign:
I noticed that on sharply curved ramp connecting I-80 west with CA-113 north in Davis, the first time it took the curve at full speed and wasn’t able to stay in lane resulting in a “take control immediately” alert. After a few more times on this curve with firm pressure on the steering wheel it’s now learned to slow down and today had no issue taking the curve. Definitely learning.
A Model S owner by the username Khatsalano kept a count of how many times he had to “rescue” (meaning taking control after an alert) his Model S while using the Autopilot on his daily commute. He counted 6 “rescues” on his first day, by the fourth day of using the system on his 23.5 miles commute, he only had to take control over once.
Sillydriver explains how the Autopilot is learning his commute:
AP is definitely is learning. Each weekday morning I drive home on Route 50 in the Virginia countryside after dropping my kid at school. Watching the display while driving manually last week, I could see that AP lost lock on the road where Route 50 drops from a 4 lane divided highway to 2 lanes. Where the left lane merges into the right, the dashed line disappears for a while. Later on in the 2 lane section, a right turn lane comes off during a left hand curve in the road. I could see the projected course bend right and then snap back left: I had been using AP on the 4 lane stretch before the lane drop and was glad I had turned it off.
During the last couple days I have seen the projected course tracking correctly in both problem locations. The time of day, lighting and weather has been the same every time, and there were never any cars ahead to follow (I’m traveling against morning traffic). Then this morning I tried AP the whole length of my trip on 50 and it tracked perfectly.
Last week, Tesla released the Autopilot in Europe and Asia. While announcing the regulatory approval in the new markets, Musk also announced that on top of the fleet learning, the company will “soon” release a 1.01 update to the Autopilot software to further improve the system’s capacity to self-improve and handle curves, as well as lane changes.
NY Times Review
It is not every day you get to open a door and step into the future.
But to pull the handle on a newly updated Tesla Model S this week and slide into the driver’s seat was to catch a glimpse of the auto industry’s plans to soon let cars drive us, rather than the other way around.
The updated Tesla, an already high-tech electric car that starts at about $75,000, was equipped with what the company calls Autopilot — a semiautonomous feature that allows hands-free, pedal-free driving on the highway under certain conditions. The car will even change lanes autonomously at the driver’s request (by hitting the turn signal) and uses sensors to scan the road in all directions and adjust the throttle, steering and brakes.
It is the first time that a production vehicle available to consumers will have such advanced self-driving capabilities. Or more to the point, the first time they will be unleashed for driving 70 miles per hour along twisty, though clearly marked, highways for long stretches. (Other manufacturers like Volvo and Mercedes-Benz recently introduced their own semiautonomous features, but limit the functions to lower speeds or require the driver to constantly touch the wheel.) And it’s perfectly legal. Among the states, only New York has any law prohibiting hands-free driving.
Thursday morning, Tesla owners woke up to discover that their vehicles can wirelessly download the new autopilot feature as a software update. That means the next time you see a Model S cruising next to you on the interstate, look closely: It may be driving itself.
Autopilot is not free (the download costs $2,500), and it is not yet perfected (clear lane markings are needed, and bad weather can affect its abilities), but it works remarkably well under normal circumstances.
The feeling of gliding autonomously through highway traffic initially feels a bit unnerving, especially on the Washington area’s notoriously congested roads. But on a recent afternoon while testing Tesla’s autopilot, that feeling faded as I began to trust the car to keep its lane along the twisty highway that hugs the Potomac River in Virginia.
One of the most soothing aspects of the system was how natural the steering felt through the turns. To mimic a human driver is one of the big challenges automakers face in designing self-driving cars. That is because computers can be so perfect that they may constantly adjust to stay exactly in the middle of a lane, resulting in a lot of little jerky motions of the wheel that feels unnatural. Not the Tesla. It was silky smooth.
That does not mean, of course, that drivers can simply relax and let their minds wander. The car is skilled at keeping its lane, but when lane markings disappear or are significantly faded, you have to take over.
Similarly, when heading through construction zones, or when traffic is merging, the human driver is wise to keep full control. If you are in the right lane of a highway and cars are merging at slower speeds, most drivers want to move over a lane and go around them. But the Tesla does not know that. It will instead automatically slow to match the slower speeds of the merging cars.
The autopilot does include an auto lane-change feature that allows a driver to switch lanes simply by using the turn signal. The car scans to make sure nobody is in the next lane and then moves over. So in theory, for highway merges, a driver could tell the Tesla to slide over and pass the slower cars. In practice on my recent test drive, I played it safe and took over control.
Tesla officials have stressed that ideally drivers should keep at least one hand on the wheel at all times. The company’s chief executive, Elon Musk, also said on Wednesday that the company considered autopilot still in “beta” and that drivers had to assume liability when they used it. In other words, if you go hands-free and get into an accident, Tesla says it is not going to pay the bill.
But in practice, while drivers need to stay alert, the system indeed allows for hands-free driving. On my drive through the southern end of Washington and into Virginia, I began by hovering my hands an inch or so above the wheel, just to get comfortable. After about 20 minutes, I found myself resting my hands on my lap.
If the system loses confidence in its ability to read the road ahead, however, either because of bad lane markings, weather issues or anything else, it signals the driver with a blue message on the dashboard, followed by audible alerts, indicating the driver needs to take the wheel. Ignore those sounds and the autopilot will disengage, bringing the vehicle to a stop.
The Downside
Motorists are becoming increasingly oblivious to the dangers of the road because modern cars are being turned into “living rooms” on wheels, according to driving experts.
A rise in the number of safety features such as anti-lock brakes and stability control is creating complacency among many drivers, the Institute of Advanced Motorists (IAM) said.
Sarah Sillars, the institute’s new chief executive, said that the industry had made cars almost too easy to drive, meaning motorists spend more time fiddling with technology on the dashboard than concentrating on the road.
It was claimed that some cars — packed with GPS devices, hands-free phones and digital sound systems — had been turned into “living rooms moving at 85mph”.
The comments come after figures showed a sudden rise in the number of serious accidents after a long-term decline in injury rates. Almost 25,000 deaths or serious injuries were recorded on the road in the past 12 months, up 4 per cent in a year. Major incidents involving children increased by 3 per cent to more than 2,000, the first yearon-year rise since the mid-Nineties.
Ms Sillars said that there was “still much work to be done” to improve driving skills.
She said that the IAM, a road safety charity, would “encourage anything that would make the cars as safe as they can be” but there was a sense that vehicles were “almost too safe nowadays in relation to people’s expectations that they won’t get hurt”.
“There have been developments in the last ten years — with automated braking, rear sensors and so on — but while the technology has moved on, the driver awareness, behaviour or standards have not run in parallel,” she said.
Ms Sillars said that motorists spend too much time “fiddling with all the buttons” on the dashboards of modern cars. “I think we have got a disconnect between the capability of the car and the capability of the driver . . . If you look at the fantastic kit now in cars, with all the sound systems, sat-navs and phones, cars are not difficult to drive any more,” she said.
Peter Rodger, chief examiner for the IAM, said: “I can think of people who more or less don’t drive their cars because they have got lots and lots of technology in it and they do as much as they can to sit there, do nothing and let the car drive itself. They are as uninvolved in the process as they can possibly be.”
Four Autonomous Features Becoming Standard
In the world of self-driving cars, all eyes are on Google. But major automakers are making moves toward autonomous driving, too. Although their advanced-safety and driver-assistance features may seem incremental in comparison, many are proofs of concept for technologies that could one day control driverless cars. At the same time, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the arm of the Department of Transportation charged with establishing and enforcing car-safety standards and regulations, is studying and testing the road readiness of these control and machine-vision systems. In the short term, as buyers hold their breath for robotic cars, making automation features standard will save lives.
Forward Collision Avoidance
In January the NHTSA announced that it would begin to factor crash-preventing braking systems into its car-safety ratings. The systems use forward-facing sensors—which can be radar-, camera- or laser-based—to detect imminent collisions and either apply or increase braking force to compensate for slow or insufficient driver reactions. Honda was first to introduce such a system in 2003; since then, nearly every automaker has rolled out similar features on high- and mid-range models.
Backup Cameras
Every new car sold after May 1, 2018, must have a backup camera, per a safety regulation issued by the NHTSA in 2014. The rear-facing cameras, available now on dozens of models, provide drivers with a full rear field of view and help to detect obstacles in blind spots. The NHTSA estimates that improving visibility in this way could save 69 lives every year.
Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication
For self-driving cars to navigate roads en masse, each must have the position, speed and trajectory of nearby automobiles. Last summer the NHTSA announced that it would explore how to standardize such vehicle-to-vehicle communication. The feature could improve coordination for human and machine alike during accident-prone maneuvers, such as left-hand turns.
Lane Detection
In 2013 the NHTSA established how to test the effectiveness of camera systems that watch existing painted lane markers and alert drivers if they drift. Some cars, such as the Toyota Prius, now even take over steering if a driver does not respond quickly enough to warning signals. And new 2015 models from Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen go further, using cameras and sensors to monitor surroundings and autonomously steer, change lanes and swerve to avoid accidents.
Audi Self-Drive Across America
March 31, 2015
A self-driving car equipped by GM spinoff Delphi Automotive ( a modified Audi SQ5) completed today a historic, 3,500-mile journey across the U.S. from San Franscisco to New York.
The trip demonstrated the full capabilities of its active safety technologies with the longest automated drive ever attempted in North America. The coast-to-coast trip, launched in San Francisco on March 22, covered approximately 3,500 miles.
Demonstrated on the streets of Las Vegas at CES 2015, Delphi’s automated driving vehicle leveraged a full suite of technologies and features to make this trip possible, including:
- Radar, vision and Advanced Drive Assistance Systems (ADAS)
- Multi-domain controller: High-end microprocessor to seamlessly drive multiple features and functions
- V2V/V2X: Wireless vehicle communication technology extends the range of existing ADAS functionality
- Intelligent software that enables the vehicle to make complex, human-like decisions for real-world automated driving
- Traffic Jam Assist
- Automated Highway Pilot with Lane Change (on-ramp to off-ramp highway pilot)
- Automated Urban Pilot
- Automated Parking and Valet
Delphi’s active safety technologies enable the vehicle to instantaneously make complex decisions, like stopping and then proceeding at a four-way stop, timing a highway merge or calculating the safest maneuver around a bicyclist on a city street.
Many of these driving scenarios have been a limitation for much of the current technology on the market today.
New York Show 2015
New York Times 2 April 2015
The path to fully autonomous driving will still take years to reach consumers, but car manufacturers demonstrated this week that they are now able to offer buyers several levels of so-called active safety features — in which the car takes over driving in certain instances. And they plan to introduce even more advanced semiautonomous capabilities in the coming months.
Tesla Motors made a splash when it recently announced plans to add automated highway driving features, which it calls autopilot, to its Model S sedans by the summer. But such capabilities are coming to a range of vehicles sooner than many realize.
Volvo plans to introduce a version of its XC90 this spring that will essentially provide similar autopilot capabilities at lower speeds. Intended for traffic jams, its “pilot assist” system allows the sport utility vehicle to take over both the steering and throttle to follow the car in front of it at speeds up to about 35 miles per hour.
“We’re taking out the part of people’s commute that they don’t like,” said Jim Nichols, a Volvo spokesman. “Even people who normally like to drive have told us they want the autonomous part for the more boring parts of their commute. So we’re giving it to them.”
Mr. Nichols said although the car would take control, Volvo still expected drivers to stay engaged and keep their hands on the wheel.
Audi plans to offer a similar feature in January on its new Q7 sport utility vehicle, which would allow the car to operate itself at up to 40 m.p.h. Drivers will need to touch the wheel every 10 seconds to maintain the autonomous driving, the company said.
“There’s not going to be some magical moment when we say, here is the autonomous car,” said Scott Keogh, head of Audi’s United States operations. “We have the technology, and we are going to keep bringing it out, step by step. You need to have customer acceptance and see what consumers are willing to pay for.”
Mr. Keogh said Audi’s current active safety package, which, for $2,550, includes adaptive cruise control, emergency braking and blind-spot detection, was selling well, with about 60 percent of A6 buyers paying for the option.
A number of higher-end automakers at the New York show already offer cars that are capable of correcting themselves in an instance when a driver is drifting out of a lane, and that also have adaptive cruise control, where sensors adjust speed based on the vehicle ahead. The industry is now essentially taking those technologies and merging them, resulting in a vehicle that can drive itself down a highway.
While luxury buyers will see the most advanced capabilities first, the technologies will trickle down to more affordable cars and trucks, auto executives say. A rearview camera, for example, began as a high-end item but has since become almost ubiquitous. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has made them mandatory on all new vehicles by 2018.
The safety agency’s new administrator, Mark R. Rosekind, has said one of his priorities is to ensure that active safety features that can prevent accidents become available to the mass market, not just luxury buyers, in the coming years.
“Affordability is a key part of this,” said Alan S. Batey, president of North American operations for General Motors. “It may start at Cadillac, but when we scale it, that means the costs are reduced to where we’ll be able to bring it down through our range of vehicles.”
Cadillac, in fact, plans to offer what it calls Super Cruise next year in its 2017 CT6 sedan, which was unveiled on Tuesday. The feature will allow for hands-off-the-wheel, feet-off-the-pedals highway driving.
But some more basic active safety features, particularly automatic braking, have already been introduced on the more affordable G.M. models across the industry, including the Chevrolet Malibu, Impala and Tahoe.
As he sat next to a newly redesigned Malibu that debuted at the auto show, Mr. Batey said the combination of adaptive cruise control and automatic braking meant that Chevrolet customers could now travel long distances without having to worry about hitting the gas pedal or brake. They still have to steer, but the car can do the rest.
“You literally never have to touch the pedals,” he said. “I’ve traveled 150 miles in one of these and never touched the brake.”
Mainstream consumers are also getting more sophisticated warning systems that alert them not only to trouble outside the car but to inside as well. On Thursday, Nissan demonstrated drowsy driver technology on its new Maxima that monitors when someone is getting sleepy or inattentive, then uses beeps and lights to urge the driver to pull over.
Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of Nissan and Renault, said that the progression of technologies for cars to take control would happen gradually, but that there was no doubt about the future for automobiles.
“This is going to be center stage in terms of the evolution of the car,” he said.
Mr. Ghosn said the goal was ultimately to empower drivers to decide when they want to be in control, and when they want to sit back and let the vehicle do the work. He predicted variations on autonomous driving would exist for highways over the next three years, and for city driving by the end of the decade.
Luxury car buyers will undoubtedly get the first taste of autonomous technology, but it is not clear that the wealthiest car aficionados will necessarily want it.
Rolls-Royce, which had cars at the show with prices topping $350,000, could easily have integrated the existing semiautonomous features of the most advanced Mercedes S-Class, Audi or Volvo, and its buyers could easily afford them. But Gerry Spahn, a Rolls-Royce spokesman, said the company had no plans to offer such self-driving features.
The Rolls lineup includes multiple sensors, infrared scanners and even a visual head-up display to feed information to the driver, he said, but the company intends to keep such sensor technology largely operating in the background.
“Our customers don’t want a bunch of things beeping or buzzing at them,” Mr. Spahn said. “They’re not spending this kind of money to be told how to drive, or to sit at the wheel but have the car do the work. They want to keep the control themselves over that experience.”
When Rolls buyers do not feel like doing the driving, they often have another option.
“Most customers already have an autonomous driver,” he said. “It’s called a chauffeur.”
Smoothing Traffic Flow
London Times 4 April 2015
In the future there will still be traffic lights, but they will always be green when you reach them.
Newcastle University is testing a scheme in which traffic lights can communicate with cars long before they reach them, telling them to slow down or speed up in order to miss red lights.
The same device also allows emergency vehicles to make a request to turn the lights from red to green.
“Traffic management systems are already in place across the city to improve traffic flow but what’s unique about this trial is that we will be giving personalised information directly to the driver,” said Phil Blythe, the university’s professor of intelligent transport systems and director of the transport operations research group.
“For example, the system might advise a driver that if they travel at 24 miles an hour they will hit the next four sets of traffic lights on green. In more congested areas or particularly busy times of the day, then vehicles on key roads might be given priority to keep the traffic flowing.”
Twenty traffic lights have been equipped to talk to cars, and 14 vehicles have been fitted with devices to receive information from them.
At present all of them are Patient Transport Service ambulances, which do not have sirens and emergency priority, but still need to get to their destination quickly.
“This is about optimising the network,” Ray King, the manager of Newcastle’s urban traffic management control centre, said.
“The NHS vehicles are transporting patients to hospital for treatment and they don’t want to be held up in traffic unnecessarily, delaying appointments for other patients and wasting taxpayers’ money. If we can speed up their journey, giving them priority at lights where appropriate, then it not only reduces fuel bills and delays but also improves patient care.”
Ultimately, those behind the scheme hope that it will be a precursor to fully integrated traffic systems. Co-ordinating different cars across traffic lights more efficiently is one part of the many changes that will be necessary to convert roads for use by driverless cars.
One plan is to adapt the traffic light scheme for driverless lorry convoys. Before fully driverless cars arrive on our roads, one intermediary step is a proposed method of moving freight at night in which a single driver would lead a convoy of driverless trucks. In order for the trucks not to be split up by lights in town centres, they would need to be able to maintain priority.
“The aim of the pilot scheme is to show that it could work — that giving priority and personalised information to drivers can have a significant impact on how we drive and the conditions on our roads,” Mr King said. “This is just the first step.”
Professor Blythe added: “This is the first step towards driverless cars. If we can manage the traffic better and get cars talking to traffic lights and each other on the road, then that is a big step towards automation.”
2015 Mercedes
THE car of tomorrow has just arrived with a whispered whoosh of electric motors and the promise of stress-free commuting. It has piloted itself from a nearby carpark to our rendezvous point set by pressing a button on a smartphone — and obligingly opens its doors. As we start to walk in front of the car it detects our motion and announces “please go ahead” to confirm it has recognised out presence. It even projects a laser-illuminated virtual zebra crossing to guide the way.
We slide into the alloy pod seat, press another button on one of the high-definition touchscreens embedded in every interior panel and the Mercedes-Benz F015 concept car glides off.
Once underway the front occupants rotate and recline their seats to face the rear passengers and chat as the computers crunch algorithms to negotiate through our simulated urban environment.
Benz’s vision of the future sees the car coping with mundane driving duties but there’s nothing mundane about the vehicle itself or the way it goes about processing stimuli from the array of radar and lidar sensors and stereo cameras.
Limited applications of this technology can already be seen in existing vehicles and Benz says it is only legislative barriers that stop it from making features such as remote parking a reality. The concept car can valet park itself and return to the owner when summoned via smartphone.
Unlike the automated prototype Google-mobiles found on American roads, the F015 is fitted with a steering wheel, though it recedes into the dash in auto mode, awaiting another command to emerge and let the driver assume manual control when driving becomes a pleasure rather than a traffic-snarled pain.
Benz has gazed into its crystal ball to foresee a future where urban density far exceeds that found in today’s megacities, making time and space luxury commodities.
The F015 maximises both. This is a huge car — bigger than an S-Class limousine — to create space for a lounge-like interior, bereaved of side-pillars and transmission tunnels.
The company’s prognosticator, Dr Alexander Mankowsky, says the concept car shows how people can maximise their time and enjoyment during the daily commute, be that talking to others, watching a movie or catching up on work.
“People will want to drive, so the idea with the F015 really is to use technology to make traffic situations less stressful. That frees the driver for more creative activities.”
Big Trucks
“AU 010.”
LICENSE PLATES ARE rarely an object of attention, but this one’s special—the funky number is the giveaway. That’s why Daimler bigwig Wolfgang Bernhard and Nevada governor Brian Sandoval are sharing a stage, mugging for the phalanx of cameras, together holding the metal rectangle that will, in just a minute, be slapped onto the world’s first officially recognized self-driving truck.
The truck in question is the Freightliner Inspiration, a teched-up version of the Daimler 18-wheeler sold around the world. And according to Daimler, which owns Mercedes-Benz, it will make long-haul road transportation safer, cheaper, and better for the planet.
“There’s a clear need for this generation of trucks, and we’re the pioneers who are willing to tackle it,” says Bernhard.
A Newish Kind of Semi
The Freightliner Inspiration offers a rather limited version of autonomy: It will take control only on the highway, maintaining a safe distance from other vehicles and staying in its lane. It won’t pass slower vehicles on its own. If the truck encounters a situation it can’t confidently handle, like heavy snow that covers lane lines, it will alert the human that it’s time for him to take over, via beeps and icons in the dashboard. If the driver doesn’t respond within about five seconds, the truck will slow down gradually, then stop.
In hardware terms, the truck isn’t much different from the latest trucks and passenger cars Daimler is putting on the road. A stereoscopic camera reads lane lines. Short and long range radar scan the road up to 800 feet ahead for obstacles. No sensors face backward, because they’re not needed. There’s no vehicle-to-vehicle communication, no LIDaR. The software algorithms are adjusted versions of those developed for use in Mercedes-Benz’s autonomous vehicles.
If you can prove autonomous trucks are safer, you could make them bigger, and thus more efficient at transporting all the crap we buy on Amazon.
The Freightliner is still very much a test vehicle. Daimler’s confident it’s safe for public roads, and the Nevada DMV agrees. But the automaker needs a few million more test miles on the books, in a wide variety of locales and conditions (snow, rain, extreme temperatures), before it’s ready to offer even this very limited autonomous capability to any customers. That’ll take a decade.
This super conservative approach is typical of the way the major automakers have approached the shift toward cars that drive themselves: step by step, never promising more than they can deliver, or more than regulators are ready to allow. It may be unimpressive compared to a Google car that cuts through city traffic, but it’s a crucial deployment of this technology.
Trucks aren’t sexy, but they’re critical to our economy, and there’s gobs of room for improvement in their safety record and efficiency. Autonomous driving - even in a limited form - can deliver it.
Saving Lives
In 2012 in the US, 330,000 large trucks were involved in crashes that killed nearly 4,000 people, most of them in passenger cars. About 90 percent of those were caused by driver error. “Anything that can get commercial vehicles out of trouble has a lot of value,” says Xavier Mosquet, head of Boston Consulting Group’s North America automotive division.
So it’s no surprise some of the country’s largest freight carriers have in recent years started equipping their vehicles with active safety features like lane control and automatic braking. The economic case for these measures - the predecessors to fuller autonomy - is clear, says Noël Perry, an economist who specializes in transportation and logistics.
Humans Don’t Want These Jobs
Another point in favor of giving robots control is the serious and worsening shortage of humans willing to take the wheel. The lack of qualified drivers has created a “capacity crisis,” according to an October 2014 report by the American Transportation Research Institute. The American Trucking Associations predicts the industry could be short 240,000 drivers by 2022. (There are roughly three million full-time drivers in the US.)
That’s partly because long haul trucking is not an especially pleasant job, and because it takes time and money to earn a commercial driver’s license. The shortage will get worse, Perry says, thanks to a suite of regulations set to take effect in the next few years. A national database to collect company-performed drug and alcohol tests will make it harder for drivers who get in trouble at one job to land another. Speed limiters could keep trucks to a pokey 64 mph. Mandated electronic reporting of hours driven will make it harder to skirt rest rules and drive longer than allowed. These are all good changes from a safety perspective, but they’re not great for profits.
Meanwhile, demand for trucking is growing rapidly, thanks largely to the increase in online shopping that sends so many goods directly from warehouses to our doorsteps.
Killing the Human Driver
The way to handle that growth isn’t to convince more people to become long haul truckers. It’s to reduce, and eventually eliminate, the role of the human. Let the trucks drive themselves, and you can improve safety, meet increased demand, and save time and fuel.
The safety benefits of autonomous features are obvious. The machine doesn’t get tired, stressed, angry, or distracted. And because trucks spend the vast majority of their time on the highway, the tech doesn’t have to clear the toughest hurdle: handling complex urban environments with pedestrians, cyclists, and the like. If you can prove the vehicles are safer, you could make them bigger, and thus more efficient at transporting all the crap we buy on Amazon.
Trucks could platoon: one leading the way, with others in a line copying its every move, separated by as little as 30 feet. Having one driver lead seven trucks means significant savings on labor and fuel efficiency, says David Carlisle, chairman of the board of auto industry consultancy Carlisle & Company. Even if you still need a human in each as a backup, all the vehicles benefit from reduced wind resistance, like a Tour de France cyclist team.
A truck that controls itself even some of the time could also ease the driver shortage, Perry says. If you can make driving easier, you may be able to ease the qualifications for a commercial license, lowering a barrier to entry for newcomers (and probably lowering wages). One of the toughest tasks for a human could be done with no problem by a machine: Backing up. Plenty of consumer cars on the market now offer self-parking, having a truck do the same is just a matter of tweaking the software.
The end game is eliminating the need for human drivers, at least for highway driving. (An autonomous truck could exit the interstate near the end of its journey, park in a designated lot, and wait for a human to come drive it on surface streets to its destination.)
The drivers recognize that, Perry says. They’re not thrilled, but they don’t have much clout. Trucking unions like the Teamsters are visible but represent a tiny fraction of the industry’s workforce. The lobbying power they do have in Congress will likely go to arguing autonomous features shouldn’t be trusted over trained, professional, humans. And there, they’ll probably have a a significant ally: public perception.
Recent studies show American consumers are quite interested in technology that makes driving partly or fully autonomous. But there’s a sizable gap between a personal car handling itself and a 40-ton 18-wheeler barreling down the highway without a carbon-based life form inside. Which would be understandably terrifying to lots of people. “The public would hate to see empty trucks,” Perry says.
In his book Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, Martin Ford writes, “While the trucks may indeed soon be able to essentially drive themselves, the staggering destructive potential of these vehicles probably means that someone is going to remain in the driver’s seat for the foreseeable future.” That’s Daimler’s line, too, (minus the destruction talk). “We don’t want to get rid of drivers,” says Sven Ennerst, head of Daimler Trucks’ development department. “We want to make their lives more efficient and more easy.”
With time, autonomous features - both in trucks and in passenger cars - will prove themselves far safer and more efficient than the human driver model. Consumers will eventually accept the change. Regulators may one day insist cars drive themselves, at least when it comes to highway travel.
Until then, if you see a truck driver on the I-15 playing with his iPad instead of holding the wheel, try not to freak out.
Big Trucks 2
Even if you reserve no particular nostalgia for truck stops, the effects will be devastating for local economics. Autonomous trucks will obviously replace drivers, an estimated 3.5 million of them, but they will make the business that cater to drivers obsolete, too. Santens writes:
Those 3.5 million truck drivers driving all over the country stop regularly to eat, drink, rest, and sleep. Entire businesses have been built around serving their wants and needs. Think restaurants and motels as just two examples. So now we’re talking about millions more whose employment depends on the employment of truck drivers. But we still can’t even stop there.
Those working in these restaurants and motels along truck-driving routes are also consumers within their own local economies. Think about what a server spends her paycheck and tips on in her own community, and what a motel maid spends from her earnings into the same community. That spending creates other paychecks in turn. So now we’re not only talking about millions more who depend on those who depend on truck drivers, but we’re also talking about entire small town communities full of people who depend on all of the above in more rural areas. With any amount of reduced consumer spending, these local economies will shrink.
But autonomous trucks have obvious benefits, too. Trucking is a decently paid job but also a dangerous one. It takes truckers far from their families for long stretches of time. It encourages poor lifestyle habits. There are over 300,000 crashes involving heavy trucks every year.
Biggest Trucks
The 400-tonne heavy haulers that rumble along the roads of northern Alberta’s oilsands sites are referred to in Fort McMurray as “the biggest trucks in the world,” employing thousands of operators to drive the massive rigs through the mine pits.
Increasingly, however, the giant trucks are capable of getting around without a driver. Indeed, self-driving trucks are already in use at many operations in the province, although they are still operated by drivers while the companies test whether the systems can work in northern Alberta’s variable climate.
That is about to change.
Suncor Energy Inc., Canada’s largest oil company, confirmed this week it has entered into a five-year agreement with Komatsu Ltd., the Japanese manufacturer of earthmoving and construction machines, to purchase new heavy haulers for its mining operations north of Fort McMurray. All the new trucks will be “autonomous-ready,” meaning they are capable of operating without a driver, Suncor spokesperson Sneh Seetal said.
For Suncor’s roughly 1,000 heavy-haul truck operators, however, the prospect of driverless trucks has raised more immediate fears of significant job losses.
“It’s very concerning to us as to what the future may hold,” said Ken Smith, president of Unifor Local 707A, which represents 3,300 Suncor employees. Smith said Suncor has signed agreements to purchase 175 driverless trucks.
“It’s not fantasy,” Suncor’s chief financial officer Alister Cowan told investors at an RBC Capital Markets conference in New York last week. He said the company is working to replace its fleet of heavy haulers with automated trucks “by the end of the decade.”
“That will take 800 people off our site,” Cowan said of the trucks. “At an average (salary) of $200,000 per person, you can see the savings we’re going to get from an operations perspective.”
A Software Only Solution
(London Times 26 may 2015)
Lorries will be barred from making dangerous left turns as part of government-backed plans designed to prevent cyclists from being crushed.
A British company has invented a new digital road map that guides HGVs to their destination without making the potentially deadly manoeuvres.
The software, which can be downloaded to sat-navs or smartphones, gives lorries a route through a town or city that requires only right turns.
Large numbers of cyclists killed on British roads are victims of left-turning HGVs, with drivers complaining that they struggle to see bicycles passing on their near side at a junction. At least 26 cyclists have been killed across the UK so far this year, including five in London. In the capital, all deaths have involved HGVs
Now a technology company, PIE Mapping, has invented a new journey planner for lorries. The system, which is on trial, involves guiding lorries through right turns, or roundabouts where they are segregated from cycle lanes, as an alternative to left turns. The system is active at peak periods for cyclists, including between 7am and 9.30am.
All re-routes are assigned to ensure that the road is big enough to take large vehicles, ensuring that lorries are not pushed down small residential sidestreets, the company said. The software has been developed with support from the government-funded Transport Systems Catapult, an innovation centre that promotes technology in the transport industry.
Freddie Talberg, chief executive of PIE Mapping, said: “We’ve set out to create virtual left-turn blocks on the routing system at certain times of day. If a haulier says they need to be at a building site by 8 o’clock then the route will give a slightly longer one based on right turns.
“The beauty of the right turn is that drivers can see the junction clearly, whereas the left they can’t. It makes the whole routing navigation system much more safe for the driver and the cyclist.”
The company said it was developing the system with the Canary Wharf Group, a property development company. It is estimated that the system will cost £250 a year for a fleet of five vehicles. It also provides real-time traffic data to avoid jams and road closures.
PIE Mapping is one of several organisations supported by Transport Systems Catapult.
This includes Mole Solutions, which is testing the world’s first automated “freight pipelines” that will transport goods on driverless capsules through tunnels, taking freight vehicles off the road. Last month, the innovation centre announced that it was making up to £100 million available in the next ten years to fund more designs.
Drivers Want The Benefits
(Automotive News 7 May 2015)
When Harris Poll asked Americans if they’d trust a car to drive itself, most said: Too dangerous.
When told they can buy a car now that takes control of the brakes and steering wheel to avoid a collision, most said: Bring it on.
The survey, conducted for Autotrader.com, is a reminder that game-changing technology is less scary when it arrives piecemeal, seeping into daily life until it becomes the new normal. Automakers are betting gradualism will ease consumers’ anxieties about ceding control of a speeding automobile to sensors, cameras and chips.
Each year, bit by bit, cars will become more fully autonomous as the industry bakes “driver-assist” technology into packages of safety options. Gadgetry that five years ago seemed like science fiction is quietly becoming commonplace in a range of models, from luxury Audis to middle-market Subarus.
Ty Hendrickson, 40, recently traded in an aging minivan for a Subaru Outback after meeting someone who broke his back in a rear-end accident. The $27,000 Outback automatically brakes or cuts the throttle if it senses an impending collision and sounds an alarm if Hendrickson crosses the center line or wanders out of his lane.
“People don’t realize how intelligent cars have become,” said Hendrickson, a water-quality executive in Fort Collins, Colo. “There’s a revolution going on.”
And it’s accelerating quickly. As soon as this summer, car buyers will be able to purchase models with auto-pilot features that allow drivers to take their hands off the wheel, feet off the pedals and navigate the roads automatically.
“The rise of the machine is really happening,” said Thilo Koslowski, vice president of the automotive practice at researcher Gartner. “But a lot of consumers lack trust in the technology. That is the biggest issue facing these smart machines.”
Consumers’ concerns include things like the privacy of their whereabouts and whether cars can be hacked. That’s why automakers are careful to make sure the arrival of the self-driving car is a revolution by evolution.
• Tesla Motors Inc. plans to release a car with “auto-steering” this summer.
• Cadillac has promised to debut a model next year that offers hands- free driving.
• Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi next year will offer cars that take control in a traffic jam, allowing the driver to relax and de-stress.
• Audi’s next generation A8 in two years will feature a “central computer brain” that instantly analyzes data coming from a variety of sensors and cameras on the car and can make snap driving decisions in traffic jams and on long trips.
Time to think
“So you’ve now given time back to the individual to do some thinking while behind the wheel or simply sit back and enjoy a cup of coffee,” said Anupam Malhotra, Audi’s senior manager of connected vehicles.
In a year or two, some Audi, BMW and Mercedes models will drive hands-free at highway speeds, change lanes on their own and park themselves in a high-rise garage.
In the past, it could take several generations of cars for new technology to trickle down from luxury to mass-market vehicles. But automakers are racing to overhaul their business models to remain relevant in a world where mobility is being redefined as most of the global population crowds into large megacities over the next two decades.
Driverless cars that move in harmony like schools of fish will be essential to keep people and goods flowing safely and efficiently.
The billions being poured into autonomous autos has put the development of the underlying technology -- sensors, high-speed chips, cameras -- on hyperdrive. And it’s accelerating the democratization of the technology, as carmakers stuff it into family sedans and compacts.
Everyday models
Lane-keeping and automatic braking technology can be found on everyday models from Honda Motor Co., Ford Motor Co., Hyundai Motor Co. and others. Driver-assist packages that a few years ago went for $4,000 or more, now can be had for less than half that.
The safety package on Hendrickson’s Subaru cost him $1,200. Toyota's Lexus said it will offer a suite of semi-autonomous safety features on the next RX SUV for less than $650.
The new technology is far more intuitive than the complicated infotainment systems that have driven so many drivers to distraction over the years. Automatic braking and lane-keeping require nothing of drivers, though they can opt out with the press of a button.
Engaging adaptive cruise control, which automatically keeps vehicles at a set distance from other cars, is very similar to turning on the traditional cruise control that has been around since the 1970s.
“From a customer standpoint, the learning you need to do is not much at all,” said Audi’s Malhotra.
Driving ‘revolution’
By 2017, partially autonomous vehicles will arrive in “large numbers,” Boston Consulting Group said in a new report entitled “Revolution in the Driver’s Seat.” Going forward, automakers will add technology that gradually but inexorably takes human drivers out of the equation.
The next big leap: radar and cameras working in tandem to allow cars to pilot themselves.
“The camera is the eyes of the car and the radar is the ears,” said Bart Herring, general manager of Mercedes-Benz product management.
Mercedes already sells a system that drives a car on the freeway at speeds of up to 120 miles per hour, as long as the driver keeps a hand on the wheel. By 2016, it will offer a hands-free system, according to BCG.
Eventually, the car itself may override the driver’s desire to take the wheel if the computer determines the human is too drowsy, drunk or doesn’t have the skills needed to navigate a difficult stretch of road, Gartner’s Koslowski said.
“I think the car is going to be your friend and will look out for you,” he said.
Hands Free Trailer Reversing
2016 Ford F-150 makes the challenge of backing up a trailer easier than ever for both experts and infrequent towers alike.
Backing up a trailer can be tricky. The truck’s front wheels have to be turned the opposite direction the customer wants the trailer to go. Turn too hard and the trailer can hit the vehicle, or jackknife. Whether working alone or with a spotter, backing up a trailer can be a tension-filled ordeal.
Pro Trailer Backup Assist helps take the frustration out of backing up. It works by letting the customer steer the trailer with a control knob while the truck steers its wheels and limits vehicle speed.
Lorries are bringing “bedlam” to villages because of a rise in the number of lorries attempting to use narrow country lanes, council leaders have warned.
Large numbers of lorries, including those registered abroad, are damaging road surfaces, blocking traffic and becoming wedged under bridges after straying on to streets unfit for large vehicles, it is claimed. In some cases delivery drivers are relying on sat-navs that direct them down unsuitable roads.
The Local Government Association is calling for councils to be given powers to issue on-the-spot fines to drivers caught flouting weight restrictions. Money collected from fines could be used to tackle a £12 billion backlog in pothole repairs on local roads, it said.
The warning comes days after Chris Grayling, the Commons leader, said that logistics companies and supermarkets should stop relying on sat-navs and start using maps to avoid small villages. Recent incidents include: Four police officers and a translator were needed to help a Bulgarian driver to negotiate his way out of the village of Iwade in Kent after his HGV hit a road sign, a grass verge, a tree and a car. Houses were damaged, electricity cables brought down and a road closed when a 40ft beer lorry was diverted into the village of Uffculme, Devon. A Czech driver had to sleep in his cab for three nights after his sat-nav left him stuck in a lane in Ivybridge in Devon. Two lorry drivers crashed the same 40ft waste lorry at the same place in Wiltshire in less than a year.
Many village lanes have weight restrictions on vehicles, with enforcement left to local police forces in most cases. The LGA claims that cuts in the policing of roads have resulted in a decline in the number of penalties being handed out.
In some areas, such as in Wales and London, councils have been given the power to issue fines. The LGA is calling for similar measures to be expanded to all local authorities.
Peter Box, the LGA-transport spokesman, said: “There has been a spate of accidents involving lorry drivers driving irresponsibly and bringing bedlam to small rural communities, and action must be taken immediately to curb this.
“Councils are doing everything they can, but they are trying to take action with one hand tied behind their back and urgently need tougher powers.”
Christopher Snelling, the Freight Transport Association’s head of urban logistics, said it supported enforcement of weight and width restrictions, but added: “Disruption is very rare. Most weight restrictions are ‘except for access’. Some HGVs may be making legitimate visits to local businesses or residents, such as home removals.”
And it's a temporary problem Sat-navs are constantly updated, so unsuitable roads for big trucks just need to be flagged so that drivers are not directed down them.
Computers In Cars
“Where would you like to go?” Siri asked.
It was a sunny, slightly dreamy morning in the heart of Silicon Valley, and I was sitting in the passenger seat of what seemed like a perfectly ordinary new car. There was something strangely Apple-like about it, though. There was no mistaking the apps arranged across the console screen, nor the deadpan voice of Apple’s virtual assistant, who, as backseat drivers go, was pretty helpful. Summoned via a button on the steering wheel and asked to find sushi nearby, Siri read off the names of a few restaurants in the area, waited for me to pick one, and then showed the way on a map that appeared on the screen.
The vehicle was, in fact, a Hyundai Sonata. The Apple-like interface was coming from an iPhone connected by a cable. Most carmakers have agreed to support software from Apple called CarPlay, as well as a competing product from Google, called Android Auto, in part to address a troubling trend: according to research from the National Safety Council, a nonprofit group, more than 25 percent of road accidents are a result of a driver’s fiddling with a phone. Hyundai’s car, which goes on sale this summer, will be one of the first to support CarPlay, and the carmaker had made the Sonata available so I could see how the software works.
CarPlay certainly seemed more intuitive and less distracting than fiddling with a smartphone behind the wheel. Siri felt like a better way to send texts, place calls, or find directions. The system has obvious limitations: if a phone loses the signal or its battery dies, for example, it will stop working fully. And Siri can’t always be relied upon to hear you correctly. Still, I would’ve gladly used CarPlay in the rental car I’d picked up at the San Francisco airport: a 2013 Volkswagen Jetta. There was little inside besides an air-conditioning unit and a radio. The one technological luxury, ironically, was a 30-pin cable for an outdated iPhone. To use my smartphone for navigation, I needed a suction mount, an adapter for charging through the cigarette lighter, and good eyesight. More than once as I drove around, my iPhone came unstuck from the windshield and bounced under the passenger seat.
Android Auto also seemed like a huge improvement. When a Google product manager, Daniel Holle, took me for a ride in another Hyundai Sonata, he plugged his Nexus smartphone into the car and the touch screen was immediately taken over by Google Now, a kind of super-app that provides recommendations based on your location, your Web searches, your Gmail messages, and so on. In our case it was showing directions to a Starbucks because Holle had searched for coffee just before leaving his office. Had a ticket for an upcoming flight been in his in-box, Holle explained, Google Now would’ve automatically shown directions to the airport. “A big part of why we’re doing it is driver safety,” he said. “But there’s also this huge opportunity for digital experience in the car. This is a smart driving assistant.”
CarPlay and Android Auto not only give Apple and Google a foothold in the automobile but may signal the start of a more significant effort by these companies to reinvent the car. If they could tap into the many different computers that control car systems, they could use their software expertise to reimagine functions such as steering or collision avoidance. They could create operating systems for cars.
Google has already built its own self-driving cars, using a combination of advanced sensors, mapping data, and clever navigation and control software. There are indications that Apple is now working on a car too: though the company won’t comment on what it terms “rumors and speculation,” it is hiring dozens of people with expertise in automotive design, engineering, and strategy. Vans that belong to Apple, fitted with sensors that might be useful for automated driving, have been spotted cruising around California.
“It doesn’t make sense that the first thing you do is buy a $5 suction cup for your phone.”
After talking to numerous people with knowledge of the car industry, I believe an Apple car is entirely plausible. But it almost doesn’t matter. The much bigger opportunity for Apple and Google will be in developing software that will add new capabilities to any car: not just automated driving but also advanced diagnostics and over-the-air software upgrades and repairs. Already, a button at the bottom of the Android Auto interface is meant for future apps that could show vehicle diagnostics. Google expects these apps to be made by carmakers at first, showing more advanced vehicle data than the mysterious engine light that flashes when something goes wrong. Google would like to make use of such car data too, Holle says. Perhaps if Android Auto knew that your engine was overheating, Google Now could plan a trip to a nearby mechanic for you.
At least for now, though, the Google and Apple services essentially can read only basic vehicle data like whether a car is in drive, park, or reverse. Carmakers won’t let those companies put their software deeper into the brains of the car, and whether that will change is a crucial question. After all, modern cars depend on computers to run just about everything, from the entertainment console to the engine pistons, and whoever supplies the software for these systems will shape automotive innovation. Instead of letting Apple and Google define their future, carmakers are opening or expanding labs in Silicon Valley in an attempt to fend off the competition and more fully embrace the possibilities offered by software.
The car could be on the verge of its biggest reinvention yet—but can carmakers do it themselves? Or will they give up the keys?
Cultural shift
Cars are far more computerized than they might seem. Automakers began using integrated circuits to monitor and control basic engine functions in the late 1970s; computerization accelerated in the 1980s as regulations on fuel efficiency and emissions were put in place, requiring even better engine control. In 1982, for instance, computers began taking full control of the automatic transmission in some models.
New cars now have between 50 and 100 computers and run millions of lines of code. An internal network connects these computers, allowing a mechanic or dealer to assess a car’s health through a diagnostic port just below the steering wheel. Some carmakers diagnose problems with vehicles remotely, through a wireless link, and it’s possible to plug a gadget into your car’s diagnostic port to identify engine problems or track driving habits via a smartphone app.
However, until now we haven’t seen software make significant use of all these computer systems. There is no common operating system. Given that carmakers are preventing CarPlay or Android Auto from playing that role, it’s clear that the auto companies are taking a first crack at it. How successful they are will depend on how ambitious and creative they are. Roughly 10 minutes north of Google’s office, I got to see how one of the oldest car companies is beginning to think about this possibility.
Ford opened its research lab in Palo Alto in January. Located one door down from Skype and just around the corner from Hewlett-Packard, it looks like a typical startup space. There are red beanbags, 3-D printers, and rows of empty desks, which the company hopes to fill with more than a hundred engineers. I met a user-interface designer named Casey Feldman. He was perched atop a balance board at a standing desk, working on Ford’s latest infotainment system, Sync 3. It runs software Ford has developed, but the automaker is working on ways to hand the screen over to CarPlay or Android Auto if you plug in a smartphone. Feldman was using a box about the size of a mini-fridge, with a touch screen and dashboard controls, to test the software. He showed how Sync 3 displays a simplified interface when the car is traveling at high speed.
Ford’s first touch-screen interface, called MyFord Touch, didn’t go well. Introduced in 2010, it was plagued by bugs, and customers complained that it was overcomplicated. When Ford dropped from 10th to 20th place in Consumer Reports’ annual reliability ratings in 2011, MyFord Touch was cited as a key problem. The company ended up sending out more than 250,000 memory sticks containing software fixes for customers to upload to their cars.
Besides running apps like Spotify and Pandora Radio, Sync 3 can connect to a home Wi-Fi network to receive bug fixes and updates for the console software. Ford clearly hopes that drivers will prefer its system to either CarPlay or Android Auto, and it’s doing its best to make it compelling. “It’s a cultural shift,” says Dragos Maciuca, the lab’s technical director. The lab wants to incorporate “some of the Silicon Valley attitudes, but also processes” into the automotive industry, he says. “That is clearly going to be very challenging, but that’s why we’re here. It doesn’t make sense that you buy a car, and the first thing you do is buy a $5 suction cup for your phone.”
Ford has been ahead of many automakers in its experimentation. It has come out with a module known as Open XC, which lets people download a wide range of sensor data from their cars and develop apps to aid their driving. A Ford engineer used it to create a shift knob for cars with manual transmission so that the stick lights up or buzzes when it’s time to change gears. But Open XC has not taken off widely, and despite Ford’s best efforts, the company’s overall approach still seems somewhat conservative. Maciuca and others said they were wary of alienating Ford’s vast and diverse customer base.
In February, meanwhile, the chip maker Nvidia announced two new products designed to give cars considerably more computing power. One is capable of rendering 3-D graphics on up to three different in-car displays at once. The other can collect and process data from up to 12 cameras around a car, and it features machine-learning software that can help collision-avoidance systems or even automated driving systems recognize certain obstacles on the road. These two systems point to the huge opportunity that advanced automotive sensors and computer systems offer to software makers. “We’re arguing now you need supercomputing in the car,” Danny Shapiro, senior director of automotive at Nvidia, told me.
One of the cars at Stanford’s Dynamic Design Lab.
If anyone could find a great use for a supercomputer on wheels, it’s Chris Gerdes, a professor of mechanical engineering who leads Stanford University’s Dynamic Design Lab. Gerdes originally studied robotics as a graduate student, but while pursuing a PhD at Berkeley, he became interested in cars after rebuilding the engine of an old Chevy Cavalier. He drove me to the lab from his office in an incredibly messy Subaru Legacy.
Inside the lab, students were working away on several projects spread across large open spaces: a lightweight, solar-powered car; a Ford Fusion covered in sensors; and a hand-built two-person vehicle resembling a dune buggy. Gerdes pointed to the Fusion. After Ford gave his students a custom software interface, they found it relatively easy to get the car to drive itself. Indeed, the ability to manipulate a car through software explains why many cars can already park themselves and automatically stay within a lane and maintain a safe distance from the vehicle ahead. In the coming years, several carmakers will introduce vehicles capable of driving themselves on highways for long periods. “There are so many things you can do now to innovate that don’t necessarily require that you bend sheet metal,” Gerdes said as we walked around. “The car is a platform for all sorts of things, and many of those things can be tried in software.”
The dune-buggy-like car takes programmability to the extreme. Virtually every component is controlled by an actuator connected to a computer. This means that software can configure each wheel to behave in a way that makes an ordinary road feel as if it were covered with ice. Or, using data from sensors fitted to the front of the car, it can be configured to help a novice motorist react like a race-car driver. The idea is to explore how computers could make driving safer and more efficient without taking control away from the driver completely.
In fact, one small carmaker—headquartered in Silicon Valley—shows how transformational an aggressive approach to software innovation could be.
Drive safely
Tesla Motors, based in Palo Alto, has built what’s probably the world’s most computerized consumer car. The Model S, an electric sedan released in 2012, has a 17-inch touch-screen display, a 3G cellular connection, and even a Web browser. The touch screen shows entertainment apps, a map with nearby charging stations, and details about the car’s battery. But it can also be used to customize all sorts of vehicle settings, including those governing the suspension and the acceleration mode (depending on the model, it goes from “normal” to “sport” or from “sport” to “insane”).
Every few months, Tesla owners receive a software update that adds new functions to their vehicle. Since the Model S was released, these have included more detailed maps, better acceleration, a hill-start mode that stops the car from rolling backwards, and a blind-spot warning (providing a car has the right sensors). Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, has said a software patch released this summer would add automated highway driving to suitably equipped models.
These software updates can do more than just add new bells and whistles. Toward the end of 2013, the company faced a safety scare when several Model S cars caught fire after running over debris that ruptured their battery packs. Tesla engineers believed the fires to be rare events, and they knew of a simple fix, but it meant raising the suspension on every Model S on the road. Instead of requiring owners to bring their cars to a mechanic, Tesla released a patch over the airwaves that adjusted the suspension to keep the Model S elevated at higher speeds, greatly reducing the chance of further accidents. (In case customers wanted even more peace of mind, the company also offered a titanium shield that mechanics could install.)
Tesla’s efforts show how making cars more fully programmable can add value well after they roll out of the showroom. But software-defined vehicles could also become a juicy target for troublemakers.
In 2013, at the DEF CON conference in Las Vegas, two computer-security experts, Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek, showed that they could hijack the internal network of a 2010 Toyota Prius and remotely control critical features, including steering and braking. “No one really knows a lot about car security, or what it’s all about, because there hasn’t been a lot of research,” Miller told me. “It’s possible, if you went out and bought a 2013, they’ve done huge improvements—we don’t know. That’s one of the scary things about it.”
A few real-world incidents point to why car security might become a problem. In February 2010, dozens of cars around Texas suddenly refused to start and also, inexplicably, began sounding their horns. The cars had been fitted with devices that let the company that leased them, the Texas Auto Center, track them and then disable and recover them should the driver fail to make payments. Unfortunately, a disgruntled ex-employee with access to the company’s system was using those gadgets to cause havoc.
I asked Gerdes whether concerns over reliability and security could slow the computerization of cars. He said that didn’t have to be the case. “The key question is, ‘How fast can you move safely?’” he says. “The bet that many Silicon Valley companies are making—and that many car companies are making with their Valley offices—is that there are ways to move faster and still be safe.”
Ultimately, the opportunities may well outweigh such concerns. Tesla’s efforts point to how significant software innovation could turn out to be for carmakers. Tesla is even experimenting with connecting the forthcoming autopilot system to the car’s calendar, for example. The car could automatically pull up outside the front door just in time for the owner to drive to an upcoming appointment.
Perhaps this also explains why Apple and Google are now dabbling in vehicle hardware: so they can fully own some people’s driving time even before carmakers decide to open up more aspects of their vehicles. “Clearly Apple and Google would love to be the ones who have the operating system for these future cars,” Gerdes says.
As I drove back to the San Francisco airport, my VW Jetta felt more low-tech than ever. The ride was fairly peaceful, with the Santa Cruz Mountains looming in the distance. Even so, after so much driving, I would’ve been glad had Siri offered to take over.
Audi New Self-Drive Tech
July 16 2015
SONOMA, Calif. — Markus Hoffmann, an engineer at Audi, prepared himself for a high-speed run around the Sonoma Raceway here in Northern California. But instead of grabbing the steering wheel, he clutched a button he would release only if something went awry. The car, which he called Robby, was going to negotiate the two-and-a-half-mile Nascar track by itself — at 120 miles an hour. “If something goes wrong, I’ll take over,” he said, giving a thumbs-up to engineers in the stands. With that, a computer in the trunk twitched the steering wheel into position, and Robby took off. “I’m doing nothing except holding the kill switch down,” Mr. Hoffmann told his passenger, somewhat reassuringly.
As the Audi RS7 negotiated hairpin turns on the road course at top speed and came within inches of the raceway’s walls, it became clear after some tense moments: This car knew what it was doing.
The design turns the car into a shared social space where any passenger can interact with the vehicle.
Auto engineers at traditional carmakers like Audi, and at Google and Tesla, are in an arms race of sorts in the rush to build self-driving cars, a technology, they say, that will make driving safer and free drivers of mind-numbing hours behind the wheel.
But to do that, they first must clear an important hurdle: winning the public’s trust to let go of the wheel.
Building faith in autonomous technology is pivotal for Audi, which says that in the next three years it will sell a luxury sedan that can control itself in a traffic jam — a driving experience that fries the nerves of human drivers but doesn’t faze computers.
Cadillac is also planning to introduce a self-driving feature, Super Cruise control, for highways in a coming model. And Elon Musk, founder of Tesla, has promised a software update this summer to existing Model S cars that will allow them to steer themselves on limited-access roads.
But is the public ready?
One way Audi plans to inspire confidence in consumers is by taking design cues from commercial airplanes, which people already trust, even when they know that a computerized autopilot is guiding them through the air.
A coming Audi A8 will be loaded with redundancies — two braking systems, two steering systems — so that if one fails, the computers can use the other to operate the vehicle. The concept is inspired by planes, which often fly with three versions of their most crucial components.
Another pair of redundant systems is, essentially, the car’s eyes. A front- and rear-facing camera system, along with a highly precise GPS, can tell Audi prototypes where they are on the track, which the computer has memorized. If the positions the systems give don’t match, the automation shuts down.
Audi’s cars are far from being completely autonomous, Audi engineers say. They are “piloted” by the driver, language borrowed from aviation that is meant to imply that the person sitting in the driver’s seat is still ultimately in control.
But Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, warned that the analogy to pilots went only so far. “It’s a myth that the more automation you have, the less education you need,” he said. “The pilots are there to supervise the automation and take control when the automation exceeds its boundaries.”
The A8 will be able to drive itself only at low speeds on highways when traffic is tight, reassuring the driver it can see what is ahead by displaying road signs it spots on the navigation screen. And that leads to a second challenge for engineers: how to tell drivers cruising on autopilot when they need to take control. Audi’s engineers have created visual and tactile cues that the car is taking over: The steering wheel retracts, and lights lining the top of the dashboard glow green. When the driver needs to take control again — at a highway exit, for example, or as traffic clears — the lights blink red, a repeating tone comes from the speakers, and the wheel juts back into the driver’s lap. The signals are meant to be unambiguous: Take back the wheel, now.
But given the novelty of autonomous features, which combination of signals is best for getting drivers’ attention remains unclear.
Anuj K. Pradhan, a scientist at the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute, said that research in the field was in its infancy, including the work being done at his lab. “We have fewer answers than we have questions,” he said. Consider all the variables: What if the driver is reading a book? Or is hard of hearing? Or dozes off?
“Let’s be honest,” said Brian Lathrop, a cognitive psychologist who works on autonomous technology for Volkswagen brands, including Audi. “People will likely fall asleep.”
For that, Audi has an in-car alarm clock: The repeating tone grows louder until the driver wakes. It will also have a facial recognition system that can tell if the driver is asleep.
“At this point, substantial effort in the automotive community is focused on developing fully autonomous driving technology,” said Karl Iagnemma, an automotive researcher at M.I.T. “Far less effort is focused on developing methods to allow a driver to intuitively and safely interact with the highly automated driving vehicle.”
In any case, the autonomous future has not come at once, which only highlights the need to ease consumers into the idea that cars will be able to change lanes on their own.
In contrast, Google has focused on developing a completely autonomous car. The company says that the evidence points to just how reliable self-driving cars will be, provided they win the trust of drivers.
In June, Google released information on all accidents the cars were involved in. Over six years of testing, there were 12 accidents. None of them were caused by the self-driving cars, the company said.
“If there is one accident, it will hurt the whole field,” said Ewald Goessmann, executive director of the Electronic Research Laboratory, a Volkswagen research facility in Silicon Valley.
Back at the Sonoma Raceway, Mr. Goessmann and other Volkswagen employees entertained rotating groups of lawmakers and Silicon Valley executives by letting them drive a RS7 around the track. Rodney Ellis, a state senator from Texas, looked slightly nervous before his ride in Robby, but was impressed afterward. “It was a lot smoother than when I did it,” he said. Bill DeSteph, a member of the Virginia House of Delegates and an auto enthusiast, said the drive was fascinating. “I’m ready to order it now,” he said.
Automatic Braking
Federal regulators said on Friday that 10 automakers had agreed to install automatic braking systems, which use sensors to detect potential collisions, as standard equipment in new vehicles. But the automakers have not set a timetable for the introduction of the systems, and regulators may still seek government rules that would require the equipment as a standard feature in all cars and trucks — just as airbags were mandated a generation ago.
Anthony Foxx, the transportation secretary, said in a prepared statement that emergency braking technology could reduce traffic deaths and injuries. “We are entering a new era of vehicle safety, focusing on preventing crashes from ever occurring, rather than just protecting occupants when crashes happen,” Mr. Foxx said.
Automatic emergency braking systems are meant to mitigate accidents, particularly rear-end crashes in which drivers fail to apply the brakes in time to avoid collisions.
The systems would be the latest in a long line of government efforts to cut the number of traffic fatalities in the United States, which fell about 25 percent from 2004 to 2013, to 32,719, according to the most recent government statistics.
If put in place, the systems would be another step in that direction, similar to government initiatives that required airbags and backup cameras as standard equipment.
The announcement Friday was made in conjunction with the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, a nonprofit group sponsored by insurance firms that is dedicated to reducing accidents on the nation’s highways.
“Most crashes involve driver error,” said Adrian Lund, the group’s president. “This technology can compensate for the mistakes every driver makes because the systems are always on alert.”
In their relatively short time on the market, automatic braking systems have shown promise, research has shown. For example, insurance officials compared insurance claims data for Volvo models that were equipped with the braking technology with those that were not. In each case, claims made under property damage liability coverage were about 15 percent lower in the Volvo models that had such technology compared with cars that did not.
The announcement on Friday was made at the dedication ceremony of the institute’s newly expanded research facility in Virginia, which has new capabilities to test crash-avoidance technology.
Some luxury autos are already equipped with emergency braking systems, but the technology is not common on most mass-market vehicles.
The manufacturers that have committed to making emergency braking standard on future vehicles include BMW, Ford, General Motors, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen (as well as its Audi brand) and Volvo.
The 10 companies “will work with I.I.H.S. and N.H.T.S.A. in the coming months on the details of implementing their historic commitment,” the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said in a statement. The agency did not comment on why other auto companies were not participating in the effort. It said that the 10 automakers involved manufactured about 57 percent of all the new vehicles sold in the United States last year.
An agency spokesman, Gordon Trowbridge, described the voluntary commitment by the participating automakers as an initial step toward accelerating the installation of braking systems in as many vehicles as possible. “Some of these companies are further along in this technology and we hope they will respond quickly,” Mr. Trowbridge said. He added that the safety agency could still pursue the enactment of federal rules requiring the equipment, but he noted that such an effort would be lengthy. “Rule-making is still a possibility, but the reality is that rule-making can be a five-year process, or longer,” he said. “And we think that lives can be saved in the interim.”
Industry analysts say that automatic braking requires expensive technology that not all automakers are equipped to install at the moment. And automakers, in developing the technology, have developed different approaches. Vehicles that detect a potential collision offer audible and visual alerts to the driver, then they may give a physical warning in the form of a vibrating steering wheel or pulsating brakes. Other systems activate a tug on the seatbelt.
“It’s a worthwhile goal, but one that will take a lot of time and resources across the industry,” said Karl Brauer, an analyst with the auto-research firm Kelley Blue Book.
Which Company Most Advanced?
Navigant Research recently issued a leader board evaluating how automakers stack up on autonomous vehicles. I caught up with author David Alexander to discuss the findings, which ranked on strategy and execution. Here are a few interesting points that came up:
1. Daimler is No. 1, for now
Navigant says Mercedes-Benz is in front due to its track record in technologies such as anti-lock braking and adaptive cruise control. Daimler also recently tested a self-driving tractor-trailer in Germany, and has shown off concept cars that caught Navigant’s eye.
“It’s not a huge gap between them and the others,” Alexander said. “Ford, Volvo, Toyota, Honda could easily catch up and overtake with a couple of judicious announcements.”
2. Tough grades for Tesla
Tesla has drawn recent attention with its new autopilot feature, which can handle most highway driving. While there are concerns about how the system will be used by some drivers, it’s the most obvious example of advances in car technology. Yet Navigant isn’t as impressed.
“We think the influence on the overall market is going to be bigger from companies like the German manufacturers, General Motors and the likes of Ford, Volvo and Toyota, who are going to be bringing these features much more rapidly to the more general higher-volume vehicles,” Alexander said.
He added that Tesla scored high on functionality and implementation of autonomous vehicles, but was penalized for a short record of bringing autonomous technology to market.
3. A tale of two markets — urban and rural
Alexander predicts two vastly different markets for mobility emerging.
“The rural areas will still continue on the personal ownership model, but it’s simply impractical as cities get bigger, more congested and more popular, there’s simply not room for everyone to own a car,” said Alexander, who forecasts that a car-sharing fleet will provide cheaper transportation in cities than car ownership.
4. Then what about Google, Uber and Apple?
The report focuses on existing automakers, but tech companies are circling the industry, well aware of how software could reinvent transportation. I asked Alexander where he would put Google and Uber on the chart, and he said near Mitsubishi, which is ranked last.
Anderson and other observers I’ve spoken with stress how tech companies lack experience in designing vehicles and dealing with regulators. An interesting way to look at this is whether that challenge is easier or harder than what the incumbent automakers have to overcome. They lack the tech company’s software experience, and have always relied on the model of personal car ownership. Can they transition to an era of self-driving, shared vehicles? Whether tech companies or current automakers adjust best likely determines who will triumph.
Earlier this week Uber chief executive Travis Kalanick called Google the leader in the self-driving space. He acknowledged that Uber risks being disrupted if it doesn’t deliver on a fully self-driving service. A self-driving taxi would be less expensive than an Uber with a human driver in it, and consumers would likely gravitate to the more affordable option. For Uber, developing self-driving technology is a matter of life and death, and that urgency should be helpful.
Automatic Lane Changing
The auto industry took a small step toward autonomous driving when Mercedes-Benz announced Wednesday that it will automate some lane changes on its new E-Class next spring.
Drivers at highway speeds will only need to activate a turn signal, and the car will then switch lanes, provided it determines it’s safe to do so. The new feature from Daimler — which some have called the leader in autonomous driving — is similar to a feature in Tesla’s autopilot that arrived in October.
For the automated lane change to work, the car must be traveling between 50 mph and 112 mph and having steering assist activated. (That feature keeps the vehicle in the center of the lane.) Once the turn signal has been on for two seconds — and the car’s sensors determine a safe change can be made in three seconds — the vehicle will change lanes. The E-Class will rely on a camera and radar to ensure there isn’t a car in its path and to identify lane markings. Mercedes-Benz says the system will only work on multi-lane highways.