These are the stakeholders - legislators, regulators, insurers, car companies and drivers
Google has been talking to the first four groups for a decade. The last one, not so much.
The first four can see the major financial advantages of these cars, and are doing all they can to make them happen.
Legislators
Governments have to worry about money.
They don't particularly like spending money on roads because they don't get much benefit from it. By the time the roads are built, the pols are out of office, so they don't get any credit. And the new road fills up fast, so drivers don't stay grateful for long.
But if the existing cars are replaced by glorified golf carts travelling in tight convoys inches apart, you can pack in 6 or 8 times as many vehicles on any given stretch of road, and so existing motorways will suffice for many years.
Lighter cars means less repairs needed for roads.
The biggest benefit is that fewer accidents means lower hospital and welfare costs. Every dollar wasted on patching up people is another dollar they can put towards productive projects that improve society.
And if you know exactly where any one car is at any time, you can easily charge variable rates for accessing roads at different times.
Bottom line - legislators LOVE the idea of autonomous cars.
Regulators
Want to move people around their city as efficiently as possible.
Autonomous cars won't need to park on city streets, so (a) can fit more cars in, and (b) don't need infrastructure of parking meters and wardens writing tickets.
Fewer accidents mean less clean-up costs.
Bars and restaurants will prosper (and pay more taxes and fees) if customers no longer have to worry about DUI laws.
Bottom line - regulators LOVE the idea of autonomous cars.
Insurers
Insurers are already profiting from improvements in car safety - their repair costs are going down faster than premiums.
Autonomous cars will eliminate a lot of accidents, but will also decrease the need for insurance.
At first, regulators will demand high levels of third party insurance in anticipation of law suits, particularly in America. The policy costs that most car owners incur will be wrapped into the hourly charge for an autonomous car.
But long term insurers will have a hole in their accounts - they will be able to charge high risk premiums to those who insist on keeping their old cars, but still won't make up for the millions who won't need a policy.
Auto theft insurance will just about disappear.
Bottom line - insurers will have to put up with the idea of autonomous cars.
Car Companies
Car insurance premiums could tumble in the next ten years as the development of “crashless” driverless cars curtail road accidents, although the government and manufacturers may have to work hard to convince a sceptical public of the benefits of ceding control of their steering wheels.
In February the UK became the first country in the world to introduce government-funded trials of driverless technology, with tests piloted in Greenwich, Milton Keynes, Coventry and Bristol. So far these have taken place off-road, but next month will herald the first driverless cars to take to British roads as trials of the innovative technology move up a gear.
It is not only motoring that will be revolutionised by driverless technology. Human error accounts for nine out of ten car crashes, so there are high hopes that accidents will plunge — by 25,000 a year by 2030, a study by the consultancy KPMG claims. Insurance premiums should head the same way as owners of self-driving vehicles are largely absolved from liability.
David Williams, director of insurance at Axa, says: “Driverless technology should contribute to reduced premiums and change the way we think about car insurance. Rather than person-based cover, based on an assessment of the risks posed by the driver, you could see the development of vehicle-based cover.”
When will it happen?
Andrew Miller, of Thatcham Research, says: “Vehicles will be highly autonomous before they become fully autonomous. It might be only five or ten years before we have vehicles that can do the whole thing but another ten to 15 years before every new vehicle has the technology — unless, that is, everyone wants one, like they want a smartphone.”
How much could I save?
According to the AA, the average quote for a typical comprehensive car insurance policy fell by 1 per cent during the first three months of the year. That equates to a drop of £5.58 and means that the average fully comprehensive policy costs £530 a year.
Premiums could still fall substantially long before driverless cars go mainstream because of the greater adoption of semi-autonomous technologies. Talk in the motoring world is of a “connected car revolution” whereby onboard sensors and internet technology improve the driving experience and connect with the world around, sharing information with other devices outside the vehicle. Cars are already being fitted with self-parking systems, anticrash sensors and adaptive cruise control that keeps you at a safe distance from the vehicle in front. This is affecting the cost of cover.
Ian Crowder, of the AA, says: “Where these are fitted as standard you could save an average of £20 to £30 a year.”
As the technology improves, the savings could really start to add up. John Leech, head of auto at KPMG, says: “The key technologies are automated emergency braking and vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] communication. V2V standards have yet to be agreed by the EU, but once fitted on most cars then insurance premiums will halve, most likely around 2025.”
Will insurance disappear?
Even in a driverless world, insurance will still be needed to cover fire, theft and accidental damage. There is also no guarantee that falling premiums will make driving cheaper; self-driving cars could be more expensive to buy and repair. Nor is it clear that we are ready for the driverless revolution. Fifty-seven per cent of people surveyed by Populus on behalf of the AA said that they did not trust the government and manufacturer assurances that driverless cars were safe; 65 per cent said that they enjoyed driving too much to ever want a driverless car.
Some researchers have raised doubts over claims that self-driving vehicles will reduce accidents. Apaper from academics at the University of Michigan says that the “expectation of zero fatalities with self-driving vehicles is not realistic”. “During the transition period when conventional and self-driving vehicles would share the road, safety might actually worsen,” it adds.
This argument is supported by evidence from the United States, where driverless cars are being tested on the roads. Google has revealed that its autonomous cars have crashed 11 times but says that the collisions, mostly involving the cars being hit from behind, were caused by other drivers.
Who will be liable to pay claims?
This is a question that has yet to be resolved. At present, the driver is liable for any damage they do to themselves or to others, but if the car is to blame, manufactures could be liable to pick up the bill. This could lead to an increase in legal disputes. Mr Williams says: “If there is a lack of clarity over who is responsible it will be great news for personal injury lawyers.”
Car Companies
Can see the future coming and realize they have a stark choice - they can be part of it, or they can be dinosaurs.
Bottom line - car makers are already building autonomous cars.
Google's Prototype
Google’s announcement Friday that it will test small, pod-style autonomous cars on public roads might seem surprising to anyone enthusiastic about—or just familiar with–conventional cars. The vehicles look cute but hardly impact-resistant, and they have a top speed of only 25 miles per hour.
But some experts suspect that the unconventional two-seater vehicle, known within Google as “Prototype,” represents a practical strategy to get fully autonomous cars into everyday use. Google still has significant work to do before its software can handle all the situations a human driver can. But it will be easier to build, test, and market small vehicles for limited environments than to craft autonomous cars that can handle everything from high-speed freeway driving to city streets, they say.
“There’s going to be an enormous market for small autonomous vehicles,” says Gary Silberg, an auto industry analyst at the consulting firm KPMG. He cites city centers, airports, campuses, and amusement parks as places where vehicles much like those Google is just starting to test could fit in. “From a market perspective, it’s a huge opportunity,” he says.
Google first unveiled its compact car design last year, in what seemed like a change in strategy from its effort to make conventional cars that were capable of driving themselves (see “Lazy Humans Shaped Google’s New Autonomous Car”). On Friday Google said that the new design will be unleashed on the roads of the company’s hometown of Mountain View, California, this summer. Eventually, up to 100 vehicles will roam the town’s suburban streets.
Prototype’s low top speed qualifies it for the less stringent vehicle safety standards the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) applies to electric golf carts. The car must have lights, mirrors, and seat belts but is exempt from many of the crashworthiness standards and air-bag requirements of normal gas and electric vehicles. In Mountain View, it will be restricted to roads with a speed limit of 35 miles per hour or less.
That still gives the design a lot of scope as an urban taxi, says Bryant Walker Smith, an expert on autonomous vehicles at the University of South Carolina. “Almost the entire island of Manhattan between the expressways could be accommodated by a vehicle operating at 25 miles per hour,” he says. “Right there, you have several million people who could be serviced by a car like this.”
A slow, light car such as Prototype is also less apt to be involved in a catastrophic accident. Impacts are more likely to be gentle fender-benders rather than pile-ups, and there’s less potential to injure or kill pedestrians or cyclists. “A limited-environment low-speed vehicle will be technologically and socially viable sooner than a vehicle capable of operating anywhere,” says Smith.
But there are also drawbacks to focusing on such a limited vehicle. Tests of Prototype won’t give Google the experience with safety systems and crash tests it will need to design a more conventional autonomous car that can travel at higher speeds.
The Boston Consulting Group estimates that bringing full autonomy to market will cost car makers upward of $1 billion each over the next decade. That money will go to design prototypes, develop sensors and processing technologies, write integration software, and perform testing and validation. Apart from the navigation and decision-making algorithms, such systems are likely to be very different in a full-speed four-seater and a low-speed taxi.
Google also still has significant work to do on making its software capable of handling all road situations. The cars have recently gained some ability to cope with roadside joggers, police vehicles, and cyclists’ hand signals. But they still can’t reliably handle very rainy conditions or operate in areas that have not been mapped to centimeter-level accuracy.
The distinctive Prototype might help Google learn how other road users interact with fully autonomous vehicles. It is a Level 4 vehicle, an NHTSA classification applying to cars that require passengers to do nothing more than provide their destination.
At the moment, no one knows how people will react to a car with an empty driver’s seat. If people change their behavior in unpredictable ways, then Google’s software may have extra challenges. It can’t use social cues like eye contact or waving to other drivers and pedestrians as a human driver might to clear up a misunderstanding. However, California regulations currently require that all driverless test vehicles have a backup steering wheel, a brake pedal, and a safety driver ready to take over at all times.
Whatever Google’s ultimate aim, the company will continue to operate at least some of the 23 modified self-driving Lexus SUVs it already drives on public roads. They are able to drive anywhere Google has mapped in detail. In total, Google’s cars have covered 1.7 million miles around the Bay Area, including freeways and city and suburban streets.